The Eye of the Storm
The US equity run in the past few months has been impressive in its swiftness, as has been the rise in long term US treasury yields.

However, neither is indicative of a change in the economic trajectory.

There has been a slight decrease in some measurements of the rate of ....

By Roger Arnold On 5/15/2009

Deflation is Still the Primary Concern
There has been increasing discussion by pundits concerning whether the US economy is headed deeper into recession and outright price deflation or is about to turn the corner and head into increasing economic activity and renewed inflation.

During the past ~8 weeks US equity values have ....

By Roger Arnold On 5/6/2009

Financial Vertigo
The stock market''s going up, bond yields and mortgage rates are rising, while the economy is contracting.

Is this good or bad?

Are the markets telegraphing that the economy is about to get better?

The secular trend of US and global economic contraction has ....

By Roger Arnold On 5/1/2009